Data Analysis: The decrease in job vacancies in the U.S. may indicate a rise in Bitcoin prices.

Written by: Marcel Pechman

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Today's JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report shows that job openings in the United States have sharply decreased, but this may not be bad news for Bitcoin.

Key Information:

Weak labor and consumer data typically signal a rise in Bitcoin, leading some analysts to predict that economic stimulus plans may be introduced in the future.

The number of job vacancies in March fell to 7.2 million, below the expected 7.5 million, while the consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest level since January 2021.

If past patterns continue, Bitcoin may rise in mid-July and is expected to reach $140,000 by October 2025.

Macroeconomic conditions have always been seen as a significant influencing factor on cryptocurrency prices. Typically, when investors are concerned about weak employment and consumer data, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies perform poorly.

According to the JOLTS report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on April 29, job vacancies in March were near their lowest level in four years. U.S. employers posted 7.2 million job vacancies in March, below the 7.5 million predicted by economists. At the same time, U.S. consumer confidence declined for the fifth consecutive month in April, reaching its lowest point since January 2021.

U.S. consumer confidence (left) and total non-farm job openings in the U.S. (right) Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph

The worsening situation has increased the likelihood of central banks introducing economic stimulus measures, making the overall impact on the cryptocurrency market uncertain. Generally, additional liquidity encourages investment in risk assets such as Bitcoin, as more funds flow into the economy.

Future expectations are more important than the current weak economic data.

The last time the United States experienced a decline in job vacancies and weakened consumer confidence was between January and June 2024. In the following three months, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $53,000 and $66,000. Then, starting in mid-October, there was a 60% increase, pushing the price of Bitcoin to over $100,000. The final result was positive, but this impact manifested in the cryptocurrency market over a period of more than 105 days.

Bitcoin / USD, logarithmic scale, source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Although these conditions may initially seem concerning, weak labor and consumer sentiment are often lagging indicators. Financial markets and companies make decisions based on expectations for future economic growth, not just past data. Moreover, improvements in crypto investor sentiment often occur after confirmation of improved macroeconomic conditions. This explains why a lag of 105 days is not uncommon.

Before 2024, a similar situation occurred between January and June 2023, where both job market data and consumer confidence declined. The following four months were tough, with Bitcoin's price dropping 18% to $25,000. The price recovered to $30,500 at the end of October after 115 days. However, the next two months were very positive, with Bitcoin rising 45% to $43,900.

Bitcoin / USD in 2020, using logarithmic scale, source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

In the past eight years, the last time both the labor market and consumer confidence were significantly hit was between February 2020 and May 2020, right after the implementation of lockdown measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. During this period, Bitcoin briefly fell below $4000 on March 13, 2020. Therefore, the market expects a prolonged consolidation period before investors regain confidence in the crypto market.

Can Bitcoin reach $140,000 before October?

Looking back at the macroeconomic data, from May 2020 to September 2020, Bitcoin was not significantly affected, with its price rising from $8900 to $10600, an increase of 20%. However, in the following 60 days, Bitcoin experienced an impressive 85% increase, reaching $19700. This is the third time that weak labor and consumer sentiment data seem to foreshadow an increase in Bitcoin prices.

Although the time span from the lowest economic conditions to the rise of Bitcoin is between 105 to 130 days, the results are evident in all three cases. Therefore, if U.S. job vacancies and consumer confidence improve starting in April 2025, the price of Bitcoin may begin to rise in mid-July. If history repeats itself, this could mean that by October 2025, the minimum target price for Bitcoin is $140,000, but further positive macroeconomic data is needed to confirm this expectation.